Hey! Big Four, meet the Little Four

Not long ago Redmonk analyst Michael Cote coined the term “Little Four“ to describe a group of open source IT management solution vendors. This up and coming group of software companies includes Zenoss, GroundWork, Hyperic, and Qlusters (openQRM) and they are seen as alternatives to traditional vendors BMC, CA, HP and IBM (the Big Four). In one of his blogs (Origins of The “Little Four”) whurley of BMC stated the distinction may be short lived. whurley wrote “My moving from CTO at Qlusters (one of the Little Four) to BMC is a clear sign that at least one of the Big Four understands the value of open source in systems management.”

I agree with whurley’s first statement that the distinction of “Little Four” will be short lived, but not for the same reasons. Here is what I predict will happen:

• In a short amount of time (next 18 months) names of “Little Four” will be well known the world over. How you say? Zenoss alone was downloaded for more than 250,000 times in the past 9 months. The pace of downloads is accelerating for Zenoss and the rest of “Little Four” while increasing number of large companies are deploying the solutions in enterprise environments.
• Enterprises looking to deploy new IT management solutions already started to include Zenoss and others in their evaluation process. The pace of this inclusion will also accelerate to the point where members of “Little Four” will always be included in every IT management evaluation process.
• Today, “Little Four” successfully win against and/or replace the Big Four in some competitive cases. The win/loss rate for “Little Four” will increasingly tip in their favor until it reaches a balance.

When my above mentioned scenario becomes a reality in the near future, it will no longer be necessary to distinguish Zenoss, GroundWork, Hyperic, and Qlusters as the “Little Four.” They will simply be considered part of the leading group of IT management solution vendors. whurley is right to say that the distinction will be short lived, but not for the same reasons he may be thinking.

What will happen to the Big Four? Will they understand the value of open source as whurley states? Do they understand it now? I think that in most cases, open source to Big Four is nothing more than Linux OS support for their software or hardware products. In some cases, open source means donating some old code that no longer brings any value, but can be a tax right off. In the near future, the meaning of open source to Big Four will change dramatically. I predict that as they feel competitive pressure from “Little Four”, they will slowly adopt open source business practices. Eventually, we may see Big Four with up to 50% of its software portfolio in open source. Big Four and Little Four will meet somewhere in the middle of the road and race to the end. May the best vendors win.

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